According to CNN Data Guru, Trump is likely to win: “Can’t Say We Didn’t Warn You” During a network broadcast on Wednesday, Harry Enten, a senior statistics reporter for CNN, cited a number of factors that suggest former President Donald Trump has a high probability of defeating Vice President Kamala Harris.
According to RealClearPolitics estimates, Trump and Harris are currently in a close race, with the former president leading the vice president by a slim margin in six of the top seven battleground states.
However, Enten noted on “CNN News Central” that the unpopularity of President Joe Biden, strong Republican registration rates, and voter discontent with the nation’s course are all signs that point to a Trump win.
Only 28% of American voters believe that the nation is headed in the right path. And I would like to give you a historical perspective on that. Now, when the incumbent party loses, what proportion of the people believes that the nation is headed in the right direction? 25%,” Enten stated.
That 28% up there looks a lot like that 25%. This 42% [the average when the incumbent party won] doesn’t look anything like this 28%. In summary, very few Americans believe that the nation is now headed in the right direction. “When the incumbent party loses, it tracks much more than when it wins,” he added.
Enten went on to say that presidents with net negative approval ratings have not had members of their own party succeed them, so Biden’s poor rating may historically portend a defeat for Harris.
Enten added, “In fact, I looked back through history and there isn’t a single instance where the incumbent party actually won and 28% of the American public believes the country is headed in the right direction.” “When only 28% of the population thinks the nation is headed in the right direction, they always lose.”
We don’t know if Kamala Harris will be Joe Biden’s successor, but we do know that George W. Bush had a 20 percent approval rating in 2008. Was George W. Bush succeeded by a Republican? No. What about 1968? Lyndon Baines Johnson had a negative net approval rating. Was Lyndon Baines Johnson succeeded by a Democrat? “No,” responded the data reporter. Consider Harry S. Truman, who had an approval rating in the 20s, if not the upper teens, in 1952.
Was Harry S. Truman succeeded in 1952 by a Democrat? No, my memory He added, “Harry S. Truman was succeeded by a Republican, Dwight Eisenhower. “So, in order for Kamala Harris to win, she would need to make history and be a Democrat in order to replace Joe Biden, who currently has a very low approval rating.” Additionally, Enten noted that Republicans have been gaining ground on Democrats in battleground states including Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania in terms of party registration.
The Democratic number has decreased relative to the Republican number, indicating that Republicans are increasing their share of the electorate. In the end, he stated, “the signs will have been clear all along if Republicans win next week and Donald Trump wins next week.” Republicans are really registering, Joe Biden’s approval rating is really low, and the correct direction is extremely low. You cannot claim that you were not forewarned.
“The bottom line is for Kamala Harris to win,” Enten said in closing. She would need to make history.
Additionally, with only one week left before Election Day, the most accurate pollster from the 2020 season, AtlasIntel, has released new polling that shows a shift in momentum in favor of Trump in crucial swing states.
According to the polling, Trump is leading in six of the seven states polled, several of which were critical to Joe Biden’s victory in 2020.
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