One of Donald Trump’s closest political allies, former Arizona Republican gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake, looks certain to win her party’s nomination against another GOP candidate and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, according to a new poll.
According to a July 22–23 poll by Phoenix-based research firm Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), Lake was ahead among probable Republican voters by a significant margin. “Lake is currently at the desired 50 percent mark if the election were to take place today, while Lamb is only at 38 percent,” NPI CEO Mike Noble stated to KTAR News 92.3 FM following the release of the poll’s results on Monday morning.
Elizabeth Rye, a third Republican contender, was polling at about 3% of the vote, with 9% of respondents unsure.
Taking into consideration early voting, Lake’s lead shrinks; among those who have cast a ballot, her lead over Lamb drops to just six percentage points. Nonetheless, she continues to lead among those who have not yet cast their ballots, 56 percent to 45 percent.
The lone Democrat in the contest, U.S. Representative Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), will go up against the eventual Republican winner in November. The current holder, Senator Kyrsten Sinema, originally ran as a Democrat before switching to the Independent party.
Sinema declared earlier in the year that she will not run for office again.
According to a The Hill study, Lake, who had Trump’s backing and campaigned for governor of Arizona in 2022, is leading Gallego by just 2%.
Although the Democrat had led early surveys, Lake has regularly used immigration as a point of contention, blaming Gallego’s backing of President Joe Biden’s policies for the recent spike in migrants at Arizona’s southern border.
In a state that has had diverse political leanings in recent presidential elections—swinging from a Trump victory in 2016 to a Biden victory by a tiny margin in 2020—the technique seems to be working for certain voters.
In early polls, Lake, who launched her campaign in February, trailed Gallego by roughly 5%. But after Biden’s unpopular debate performance, her numbers rose, and according to the most recent polls, Lake is ahead of Gallego 51–49 percent.
“In December 2022, incumbent independent senator Kyrsten Sinema announced her resignation from the Democratic Party. She was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 and defeated then-Republican incumbent senator Martha McSally by a margin of 2.3%. According to The Hill’s investigation, she had first filed as an independent candidate for reelection but said in March 2024 that she would not run for office again.
Republicans now control both chambers of the Arizona State Legislature and have a minimum majority in the state’s delegation to the United States House of Representatives, but Democrats have won four straight statewide federal elections in Arizona and turned over the governor’s seat in 2022. The report went on to say that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden won Arizona by 0.3% in 2020, while Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump won the state by 3.5% in 2016.
After losing to now-Democratic governor Katie Hobbs in 2022, Lake unsuccessfully attempted to challenge the election’s legitimacy in a number of court actions. However, Lake has turned her attention to actively tackling fundamental problems in recent months, including the dysfunction of Washington, the rate of inflation, and the need for more homes in the Southwest.
Her platform seems to be striking a chord with a large number of voters, establishing her as a candidate who understands common difficulties. She has also received a great deal of support from her party, with 23 of the 49 Republican senators endorsing her.
Strong support was demonstrated in April when Trump gave a Mar-a-Lago fundraiser for her. At the event, she raised nearly $1 million, setting a new record for a non-incumbent at the club. According to reports, she has received a lot of political and financial backing, which highlights her well-known position in Tuesday’s Republican primary.
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